Introduction
Models are simplifications of reality that help us to understand some aspect of our world
All models are false, but some are useful - George Box
Models do not investigate nature. Instead, they investigate the validity of our own thinking, i.e. whether the logic behind an argument is correct. … Once one begins to think of models as ‘thinking aids’ rather than investigations of natural phenomena, one could even go as far as to say that we only need models because our brains suffer from too many limitations, and are not able to consider all sides of a complicated argument in a balanced way. - Hannah Kokko in Modelling for Field Biologists and Other Interesting People
Making a model is like making a map
If:
Then:
Remember the Goal of Statistics
“a way of taming uncertainty, of turning raw data into arguments that can resolve profound questions” (Amabile 1989)
Do long-winged crickets have a higher resting metabolic rate than short-winged crickets?
Controlling for body mass,
Many problems are more easily (or possibly) solved without a traditional likelihood